Gov. David Paterson will have to fight against the odds if he wishes to win reelection for New York state governor.
Harvey Schantz, political science professor at Plattsburgh State, said historically, it is very unlikely for an incumbent governor to win reelection with a low approval rating coming into the race.
Paterson’s approval rating is 37 percent, an 18.8 percent drop from his rating when he came into office in 2008.
As of now, however, Schantz said anything is possible for Paterson since no other Democrat has announced a desire to run for nomination, even though it is likely like Andrew Cuomo will become his opponent in the primaries come September.
But a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University predicts that Paterson will be unable to overcome the odds to win re-election.
In the poll, 55 percent of voters said they would choose Cuomo over Paterson if the primaries were held today, while only 23 percent of voters said they would place their ballot with Paterson.
Even Rick Lazio, the likely Republican candidate to run in the primaries, beat out Paterson in the poll, as 40 percent of the voters said they would place their vote with Lazio, while 39 percent chose Paterson.
“Paterson faces an uphill fight just to win the nomination, and if he wins the nomination, he faces another struggle to win the general election,” Schantz said.
Regardless of the election results, John Homburger, vice-president for administration and business affairs, said whoever becomes governor will have numerous challenges to face in regards to the SUNY system and its current budget situation.
“I don’t think it’s going to matter,” Homburger said. “Whoever is governor is going to have a very deep hole to fill in.”
But Clark Foster, budget officer at PSUC, said he would like to see Paterson remain governor due to some of his current bills, especially the Public Higher Education Empowerment and Innovation Act, which places tuition control in the hands of SUNY’s board of trustees as opposed to state legislators.
Clark said Albany’s budget process is “extremely political,” and that Paterson’s current bill could put SUNY in more control of its own processes.
“I think that Paterson has proposed something very new to SUNY, so right now, I think we would be better off with Paterson in office,” Clark said.
In addition, Clark said SUNY Chancellor Nancy Zimpher has become a great representative in the political arena, which is something that could be affected if a new governor was put into office.
“I think she would be a very good advocate no matter who becomes governor, but I think she’d just have to start over,” Clark said.
Nevertheless, some PSUC students said they wish to see Paterson leave office, as they are not as in tune with his policies as Clark is.
“He’s trying to close Point-Au-Roche, so I don’t want to see him get re-elected,” PSUC student Beth Fitzgerald said. “I don’t think he should be cutting so much money from state agencies and closing state parks.”
Student Association President Charlie Peppers agreed with Fitzgerald’s hope to see Paterson leave office. Peppers said he is against the proposed Public Higher Education Empowerment and Innovation Act, saying it gives the SUNY board of trustees too much power.
“I don’t believe Gov. Paterson is serving students and their families to his full capacity,” Peppers said. “He doesn’t seem to have control over the proposed budget cuts that are happening to SUNY.”
Student Matt Brown, however, said he will look at the election with an objective viewpoint, saying Paterson may have caught a bad rap due to the situation he was placed in.
“I don’t think he’s done a terrible job with what he’s had to work with,” Brown said.
But as history shows, Paterson will have to overcome obstacles if he wishes to beat the odds of past elections.
“I believe that President Obama personally recommending that he shouldn’t run is an omen,” Peppers said.
“I think he has a lot of work to do if he wants to get re-elected.”
note:
According to an article printed in the New York Times today, Gov. David Paterson announced this afternoon that he is suspending his election campaign and opting out of the election in November.
Recently, Paterson's administration has came under fire due to recent allegations surrounding its involvement in a domestic violence case involving top aide David Johnson.
The Times reported that last fall, a companion of Johnson accused him of "brutally assaulting her." While the woman recieved a temporary order of protection against Johnson, she said state police were pushing her to drop the case.
On Feb.7, the night before her final court hearing regarding a final protective order, Paterson spoke to her on the phone, and the next day the woman did not show up for the case, causing the judge to dismiss the allegations, the Times reported.
According to The Times article, domestic-violence experts and advocates said it was unnacceptable for Paterson to contact the woman in any way, as Paterson is a close friend of Johnson's and the states top official.
In his announcement in Manhattan this afternoon, Paterson denied the allegations, saying, "I have never abused my office -- not now, not ever," the Times reported.
Andrew Cuomo, the current attorney-general, is the likely candidate to run for the Democratic nomination come next fall.
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